1.5 million homes at flood risk by 2050 – Hometrack

Some 5% of all properties in the UK fall into the highest flood risk category and may lead to 1.5 million homes being in danger in less than 30 years, according to Hometrack.

Data from the automated valuation firm adds that this figure will rise by 1% in the next 30 years, and by a further 1% by 2080.

The company said: “This means 1.5 million homes will be at risk of flooding by 2050, with 300,000 falling into the highest risk category.”

The research comes as world leaders gather for COP26 climate change talks in Glasgow between 31 October and 12 November.

Hometrack’s data is drawn from more than 85 million automated valuations it produces a year.

It adds that flood problems in the UK are not limited to riverside properties, with climate change leaving homes vulnerable to increased flooding from escalating coastal erosion, sinkholes and heavy downpours such as those which overwhelmed drainage systems in Hammersmith earlier this year.

The study highlights data from ground risk consultancy Terrafirma, which says that more than 800 buildings will be lost to coastal erosion within the next 20 years, while nearly 7,000 homes and properties will be at risk of falling into the sea across England and Wales over the next century.

It also quotes British Geological Society estimates that 32,000 sinkholes already exist across the UK, with underground water causing dissolution, collapse and erosion.

The automated valuation firm adds: “Sinkholes are responsible for millions of pounds in damage a year, and will only become a more persistent problem as the climate crisis continues.”

Hometrack vice president of product and technology Spencer Wyer added: “While the effects of climate change are well publicised, the direct impact of climate change on property valuation is a more challenging area for lenders.

“It’s become critical for lenders to understand the risk to their existing portfolios and many have addressed this.

“However lenders also need to consider how to stop taking on further risk at origination and the more challenging task is understanding the true impact of climate change on properties impacted by it. This is something we are focusing on to support lenders.”

Last month, Virgin Money became the latest lender to sign up to Hometrack to provide climate risk analysis across its mortgage portfolio.

Hometrack’s climate change tools were launched in mid-June this year, and it has since signed contracts with a number of names in the mortgage industry, including Leeds Building Society, Yorkshire Building Society and Principality Building Society.

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