Stamp Duty transactions were up by 10% in Q3 2022 (July to September), but 8% lower than in Q3 2021, according to the latest HMRC figures.
The increase follows consecutive declines in the previous three quarters which were preceded by four quarters of growth fuelled by the Stamp Duty holiday.
Residential property transactions in Q3 were 11% higher than in Q2, and 9% lower than in Q3 2021 (three quarters after the SDLT holiday was ended).
Non-residential property transactions in Q3 2022 were 3% lower than in Q2 2022, and 1% lower than in Q3 2021.
Reaction
Marcus Wright, MD of independent mortgage broker, Bolton Business Finance:Â
“The latest quarterly stamp duty data shows the property market has been holding up well so far in 2022. But the impact of the mini-Budget and rapidly rising mortgage rates is not yet showing in these figures and that will doubtless impact the next set of data.
“It’s almost inevitable that rising mortgage rates will start to erode transaction levels and receipts in the fourth quarter and into 2023.
“We are already seeing investors and businesses put off making property purchases by higher interest rates. In some cases, rates are double what they were 12 months ago and that will feed into property transactions soon enough.”
Riz Malik, director of Southend-on-Sea-based R3 Mortgages:
“This data just goes to show that before the 44 days from hell the property market was buoyant and the government was a major beneficiary.
“With lower transactions likely in Q4 2022 and going into 2023, the government should not rely on stamp duty revenue to fill the fiscal black hole.”
Marcus Wright, MD of independent mortgage broker, Bolton Business Finance:Â
“The latest quarterly stamp duty data shows the property market has been holding up well so far in 2022.
“But the impact of the mini-Budget and rapidly rising mortgage rates is not yet showing in these figures and that will doubtless impact the next set of data.
“It’s almost inevitable that rising mortgage rates will start to erode transaction levels and receipts in the fourth quarter and into 2023. We are already seeing investors and businesses put off making property purchases by higher interest rates.
“In some cases, rates are double what they were 12 months ago and that will feed into property transactions soon enough.”
Lewis Shaw, founder of Teesside-based Riverside Mortgages:Â
“This data tells us that the start of 2022 was positive, and overall the property market has fared well coming out of COVID-19.
“However, the reality is that this data always lags behind the market. Mortgage rates have risen sharply since the end of September and we’ve not yet seen the true impact of the mini-Budget.
“Those two things taken together will show up in the next set of numbers. So whilst this is positive data, it doesn’t reflect how things are today.”
