Next month, voters will take to the polls to decide the outcome of the local elections and depending on the result we may see a General Election as early as next year.
While local elections tend to focus on issues closer to home, such as potholes and bin collections, General Elections are usually fought and won over wider issues such as immigration, the economy/taxes and the NHS.
While housing has always played a part in each party’s manifesto, it has perhaps never commanded the attention of voters in the way other more emotive issues have. We are however starting to see signs of this changing.
The Green Party is focusing its attention on housing, including a push for rent controls and new energy-efficient council homes. It is also winning favour with some Conservative-led rural areas where there is local opposition to large-scale housing developments.
One such area is Woolpit in Suffolk, where many locals are opposed to a new 300 home housing development being built, over fears it will damage the rural community.
When it comes to issues of house building, we have in the past witnessed it is those who are anti-development that have perhaps shouted the loudest – something we also saw last year when MPs rebelled and forced Michael Gove to backtrack on his planning target to build 300,000 homes a year.
In recent years there hasn’t been enough noise coming from the pro-development voters – or at least not enough to have any significant political sway. If a recent report from the Home Builders Federation (HBF) is anything to go by however, we may see the issue come into sharp focus very soon.
The HBF recently warned that in the coming years, we could see the UK’s net housing supply drop to as low as 111,000 builds per year – around 10% lower than the previous lowest ever annual net supply during peacetime. It pins the blame for this on two overriding factors – the first of which is Gove’s U-turn last year.
The HBF believes this could lead to a drop of up to 77,000 homes a year being built. Some 55 local authorities have already withdrawn or paused their housing delivery plans, including 17 since Gove announced his plans.
In conjunction with this is Natural England’s ban on houses being built in areas where it fears they could pollute the local rivers. The HBF estimates around 120,000 homes are currently on hold due to the measures.
Given that for the last 10 years or so, the number of newly-created households in the UK has risen faster than the number of homes being built, at last year’s 233,000 new builds, we are already creaking at the seams.
If this figure is more than halved, it would have significant social and economic implications for the country, the HBF contends. Furthermore, if it hasn’t already, it will inevitably start to impact voters from all walks of life.
At under 120,000 house builds a year, the HBF predicts we would see a loss of 400,000 jobs – 4,000 of which would be apprentices. In addition to this, it estimates £20bn less in economic activity and over £3bn less investment in affordable housing.
Rents are at all-time high, first-time buyers are struggling to get on the housing ladder and the root cause can be traced back to a lack of new housing being built.
If the HBF’s predictions are accurate, we are likely to see growing unrest from renters who will find it increasingly difficult to get onto the property ladder. Social and affordable housing and rental stock is likely to diminish, with the age and number of those living at home with Mum and Dad also potentially increasing.
When it comes to the current Government, we must question whether they have already thrown the towel in and are leaving the housing problem for the opposition to sort out.
Love him or hate him, Gove has shown that he can be effective and get things done when he wants to – as he has with the cladding reforms. I’m sure it is not beyond him to create a viable housing strategy and engineer it into being.
One can only assume he is leaving it for his successor to tackle – and when the opportunity arises will no doubt enjoy locking horns with them in Parliament about it.
As of yet, there has been no unveiling of a great housing masterplan from the Labour Party, other than the usual promises on planning reform and some tweets about a mortgage guarantee scheme and providing first-time buyers with first refusal on new houses in their area.
There are no easy answers to the housing crisis, but the problem calls for a joined-up approach, ensuring building quotas are met by both local authorities and developers.
We are already at a critical point and if the situation worsens still, it is hard to see how it will not be forced up the political agenda. Hopefully the voices of those in favour of more development will be heard in time for the next General Election.
Simon Jackson is managing director of SDL Surveying
