The housing market is set to record more transactions than last year, despite higher mortgage rates and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, according to eXp UK.
The research revealed that there would be an estimated 920,000 transactions in 2023, 1.3% more than the 909,000 recorded in 2022.
However, that total was still below the average between 2005 and 2022, which was 991,000.
Since 2005, the best years in terms of GDP growth were 2014 (3.2%), 2021 (7.6%) and 2022 (4.1%).
The worst were the Financial Crisis-affected years of 2008 (-0.2%) and 2009 (-4.5%), as well as 2020 (-11.0%), due to the pandemic.
For 2023, GDP growth is expected to reach 0.4% according to a forecast by the IMF.
The housing transaction count peaked before the Financial Crisis, at 1.5 million in 2006 and 1.43 million in 2007, before plunging to just 744,000 in 2008.
This figure stayed at a relatively low level until 2014, when it broke the one million barrier once again, reaching 1.06 million in 2014 and staying around the same level until 2020, when the pandemic saw it fall back to 832,000.
Activity rebounded in 2021 with the help of Government measures like the Stamp Duty holiday, as there were 1.14 million transactions, before it dropped to 909,000 in 2022.
Adam Day, head of eXp UK, said: “The market is performing steadily despite all the negative talk about housing and the economy, as despite high mortgage rates and affordability troubles it is estimated that there could be more transactions than last year.
“Analysis of the worst years shows we’re a long way away from years like 2007 and 2008, when the markets were truly in meltdown and people were staying put.
“After years of low mortgage rates, increases were always likely to bite hard, so in that context 2023 looks to be a year where the markets weather the storm.
“It’s far from the best year when it comes to both GDP growth and transactions, but it’s not Armageddon.”
