While the housing market is likely to remain somewhat muted in 2024, there are a number of local areas where prices are expected to climb, with 10 areas of the nation on track for growth of more than 14% by the end of 2024, new market analysis by easyMoney has revealed.
easyMoney analysed the recent performance of the housing market based on the latest available Land Registry data, calculating the average monthly rate of growth seen since interest rates were held at 5.25% in September of last year.
The analysis showed that since the base rate was held at 5.25% for the first time in September 2023, the average house price across Britain has declined at an average rate of -0.3% per month.
If this trend continues through to the end of the year, the average house price in Britain could fall by -2.6%, or -£7,501, from £283,428 today to £275,927 in December 2024.
A regional analysis revealed that only two regions of Britain are expected to see positive price growth by December.
In the North West, the past six months have seen an average monthly price growth of +0.4%.
If this continues through to the end of the year, prices will grow by +4.3% reaching a regional average price of £330,593.
Meanwhile, the North East has seen prices grow by a monthly average of +0.2% over the past six months.
If this continues through to December 2024, prices will increase by +2.4% to reach an average of £164,235.
Prices in all other regions are predicted to fall, with the West Midlands (-7.8%), London (-6.8%), and Yorkshire & Humber (-6.3%) experiencing the biggest drops.
However, further analysis at local authority level has revealed that some local markets could be destined to buck the national trend, with 10 locations forecast for growth in excess of +14%.
Over the past six months, house prices in Derbyshire’s Amber Valley district have increased by 2.4% per month, putting the area on track for growth of +26.5% by the end of the year.
Darlington has seen an average monthly rate of growth of 2.1% since interest rates were held, suggesting house prices in the area could climb by a further +23.7% by the end of this year.
Also set for +14% price growth or more are Torfaen (+18.8%), West Devon (+16.6%), Babergh (+15.7%), Rossendale (+14.8%), North West Leicestershire (+14.8%), Greenwich (+14.5%), Hackney (+14.2%), and Chorley (+14%).
Jason Ferrando, CEO of easyMoney, said: “After such consistent upward growth, followed by a period of stagnation, it looks to be a far more settled year for the housing market, with property values expected to remain largely flat in 2024.
“But as is so often the case, you can’t judge a market by its topline statistics. Instead you have to dive down into the local market data to discover that price performance in certain parts of Britain could be far from flat as we move through the year.”
He added: “For anyone who is looking to invest in property this year, it’s useful to know which parts of the country are bucking the national trend.
“Although it can be far less time consuming to opt for an investment vehicle where market experts have already done the hard work in identifying these up and coming investment hotspots.”
