The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transactions in June was 91,370, 8% higher than June 2023 but marginally (less than 1%) lower than May 2024, HMRC data has revealed.
As part of its latest Monthly Property Transactions data, HMRC also reported that the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transactions in June 2024 was 90,420, 5% lower than June 2023 and 2% lower than May.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of non-residential transactions in June was 9,710, 2% lower than June 2023.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions in June was 9,220, 12% lower than June 2023 and 9% lower than May.
Reaction:
Ben Waugh, managing director at more2life:
“A slight lull in property transactions doesn’t mean that the market has lost the momentum that has been building this year.
“A price war among major mainstream mortgage lenders has resulted in a string of rate reductions and the gradual return of more competitive products.
“Today’s data is likely a momentary pause before we see a flurry of activity again.
“With a cut to the Bank of England’s central rate potentially arriving tomorrow, more borrowers might be convinced that the time has come to transact as we move into late summer and beyond.”
Kevin Roberts, managing director, Legal and General Mortgage Services:
“The market remained steady in June and July with buyers largely undeterred by the general election speculation.
“All eyes are now on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision tomorrow, but the truth is that the market is already enjoying strong competition on rates with many lenders now offering fixes below 4% for the first time since April.
“Product choice and buyer confidence are both high, feeding into a positive market outlook.”
Tony Hall, head of business development at Saffron for Intermediaries:
“Today’s figures are not particularly surprising, as borrowers hold off purchases while they wait for the long-awaited base rate cut.
“However, no matter what the Bank of England decides to do tomorrow, the mortgage market is on a very positive trajectory.
“We are already seeing lenders compete on price and a lot of noise from the new Government on housing is being matched by a hum of positive sentiment among consumers as they look to take advantage of newfound stability.
“While mortgage rates are coming down, borrowers are facing a very different market to the abnormally low rates that we saw before the base rate started rising.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark:
“As the political landscape simmers back down following the General Election, we should start to see new housing plans become more defined.
“In real terms, once consumers have an opportunity to fully understand government plans moving forward, we should see confidence in the housing market move up a gear.
“Propertymark remains keen to see a dip in interest rates when the Bank of England feel confident this course of action is sensible and workable.
“In addition, it is also a case of all eyes on Government regarding potential support for first time buyers, where again there needs to be targeted ideas that allow home ownership to be a realistic proposition.”
Aman Bajwa, co-founder and director at Fairbridge Capital:
“The latest figures are just a temporary dip in what has otherwise been a strong few months. Fixed-rate mortgages below 4% are available to homebuyers and investors for the first time since April.
“When combined with the new Government’s ambitious housebuilding agenda and the anticipated base rate cut, this is fuelling demand and optimism, indicating that the market is heading in a positive direction.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops:
“While today’s data looks back to June – when the election result was yet to be announced – and shows a minor dip month on month, the property market has entered a phase of steady recovery with transaction volumes showing a level of stability in the first half of the year.
“The hope is that the landslide election victory will boost consumer confidence, adding certainty to the market to encourage buyers and sellers to press on with their home moves undeterred by political headwinds.
“Labour’s pledge to build 1.5 million new homes within the next five years is ambitious, but with mandatory local housing targets and grey belt allocation, the industry backs the Government’s determination to support the housing and planning crisis.
“If successful, this will unlock a period of significant building activity that hasn’t been seen for more than a decade.
“In the immediate term, any significant boost to the property market will not happen overnight, with borrowers keenly waiting with bated breath as to whether interest rates and therefore mortgages will come down with tomorrow’s Bank of England decision.
“This decision will have the potential to stimulate transactional growth with almost immediate effect, easing the pressure on buyer affordability.
“Across the Jackson-Stops network in June we have seen a steady uptick in new instructions compared to a year ago and exchanges have also remained in line with June 2023, with particularly strong levels of new listings year on year in the North West, the South East and Sussex.
“This suggest that popular areas that have consistently been on the top of buyers lists are sustaining this trend, with pressure on housing supply in small pockets of the UK insulating prices and activity levels for the foreseeable future.”
Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen:
“The latest HMRC transaction data for June paints a mixed picture for both the residential and commercial property markets.
“With seasonally adjusted residential transactions increasing by 8% year-on-year but decreasing only slightly by less than 1% month-on-month, we’re seeing some signs of renewed confidence among homebuyers since last year.
“However, this uptick is not a steady one and suggests that while the market has regained some momentum after a period of uncertainty, it is not by any stretch, out of trouble.
“The commercial property sector has not performed as favourably, with seasonally adjusted transactions the lowest they have been since June 2020 and are lower than levels nearly 10 years ago in June 2015.
“This is despite property values increasing for the second consecutive month in June, according to CBRE, suggesting a market short of supply and investment opportunities. The sector has been struggling to recover since the pandemic hit and has been burdened by a lack of investor confidence, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation.
“However, while these numbers are not encouraging for the commercial real estate market, they represent just one month’s data.
“Renewed certainty from the election alongside the upcoming Bank of England decision tomorrow will be a pivotal moment for the market, where if interest rates do come down we may see a very different third quarter to the year especially for commercial transactions which are typically more sensitive to fluctuating debt.
“Businesses will need to remain agile, leveraging data-driven insights and technology to navigate what remains a complex market landscape.
“At Search Acumen, we’re seeing increasing adoption of proptech solutions among property professionals, enabling faster, more informed decision-making in a bid to be one step ahead of our evolving market.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus:
“These figures may be, on the face of it, disappointing for the industry, as they represent the first month-on-month decrease in property transactions for the first time since December last year.
“However, they are a reflection of the originations market in the first half of the year, at a time of electoral uncertainty, with borrowers holding out for a stronger indication of how far interest rates will be cut and when.”
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money:
“The latest HMRC data reflects a minor dip in the steady upward trend the housing market has seen so far this year.
“The General Election introduced an element of caution among buyers and sellers, which may have resulted in some opting to press hold on searches in order to see how things panned out.
“Following Labour’s victory, we’ve already seen Angela Rayner unveil the draft National Planning Policy Framework, aiming for 1.5 million new homes this term, which could significantly reshape market dynamics.
“We’re also seeing a ‘wait-and-see’ approach from the Bank of England regarding interest rate cuts, spurring some potential home movers to hold out for more clarity on lower rates.
“Rather than relocating, we may see more homeowners opting to improve their current homes, creating a growth environment for the second charge mortgage market.
“We’re witnessing the steady growth of activity as homeowners increasingly turn to these flexible ‘homeowner loans’ to fund home improvements and to consolidate debt.
“As the market evolves, we remain committed to providing homeowners with the financial tools they need to make the most of their property investments.”
Holly Tomlinson, financial planner at Quilter:
“According to the latest monthly property transactions data from HMRC, property purchases were marginally lower in June, decreasing to 91,370 on a seasonally adjusted basis, less than 1% lower than May 2024, though still 8% higher than in June 2023.
“Though the number of property transactions completed is higher than last year, which is indicative of an uptick in buyer confidence compared to the lows following the mini budget, we are still yet to see property transactions reach pre-pandemic levels.
“This is unsurprising given the considerable economic uncertainty of recent years, and with interest rates still at a high, we are unlikely to see the housing market make any great progress in the second half of the year.
“That said, rumours of the new Labour government aligning capital gains tax rates to income tax rates might spur abnormal activity in the property market.
“This shift could trigger a surge in property sales as homeowners rush to offload their second properties before the new legislation takes effect.
“Such a move would temporarily boost housing market activity, prompting many to reconsider their property portfolios and potentially shift investments to assets with more favourable tax treatments, such as private pensions.
“The property market typically thrives throughout the spring and early summer months, but high and volatile mortgage rates coupled with the prevailing view that an interest rate cut is off the cards until the autumn has put many buyers off.
“The Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting tomorrow may offer some hope to eager buyers should policymakers indicate a clearer path ahead for rate cuts, but given inflationary pressures are expected to persist, the Bank will therefore be reluctant to move too fast so any future rate cuts will be gradual.
“The latest Bank of England money and credit statistics released on Monday further reiterate that the likelihood of seeing a spike in property purchases is slim, as net mortgage approvals for house purchases remained the same in May and June, sitting at 60,000.
“Looking ahead, it is clear something must be done to help alleviate affordability pressures and reignite the property market.
“Labour’s housing plans published yesterday appear to be a step in the right direction, but it would take a significant amount of time before we see these plans have any real effect on the housing market.
“Nonetheless, it is vital that the government follows through on its commitments in order to help combat the current dearth of supply.”
