The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions remained stable in July at 90,630, HMRC has revealed.
This figure was 7% higher than July 2023 and only marginally lower – less than 1% – than the month prior.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in July was 96,800, 13% higher than July 2023 and 7% higher than June.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions in July was 10,000, 2% higher than the year before and 4% higher than June.
However, the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions was 10,350, 11% higher than July 2023 and 13% higher on a monthly basis.
Reaction:
Tony Hall, head of business development at Saffron for Intermediaries:
“While today’s figures are not what we expected, the housing market still looks poised for a busy autumn.
“With the Bank of England’s first interest rate cut since 2020 last month, we’re seeing a wave of new sub-4% deals energising the mortgage market.
“Buyers are eager to jump back in, and with Zoopla reporting that listings have hit a seven-year high, this momentum will only grow further.
“That said, there will still be hurdles for prospective buyers as today’s market is a different ballgame compared to the years of ultra-low rates we had before.”
Aman Bajwa, co-founder and director at Fairbridge Capital:
“Confidence in the UK property market is clearly up, and while we haven’t seen this translated into activity in today’s figures, we can expect this to change in the coming months.
“With the number of buyers contacting estate agents through Rightmove up by a fifth year-on-year, we should see the interest feed through into transactions, particularly with the lower rates currently on offer.
“Rising rents, which are up 5.7% in the year to June, should also coax buy-to-let investors back into the market, which has had a tough year-to-date.
“For those seeking to leverage favourable market conditions, timing is key.
“As such, we could see a continued increase in specialist lending which can offer a strategic advantage, and help finance investments when swift action is needed.”
Kevin Roberts, managing director is Legal & General Mortgage Services:
“The UK property market may have seen a marginal dip in transactions in July, but the underlying strength of the market is evident.
“Despite a few speedbumps, the road is pointing to a stronger 2025.
“Capital Economics’ July Report indicates that house prices will stay flat for the rest of the year, and this will dovetail with falling mortgage rates to create a wave of new opportunities for buyers.
“For now, stability is enough, and the current range of products and apparent lender competition on rates and criteria is a sure sign that the market is in good health.
“The horizon definitely seems to be looking a little brighter and there’s a confidence we’ll experience a busier last few months of the year, leading to further positive transaction figures in the future.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:
“Although reflecting what was happening a few months ago, these transaction figures demonstrate that buyers and sellers have shrugged off political and economic worries and moved on.
“We don’t expect much change going forward, although concerns about the Budget will undoubtedly compromise momentum.
“Buyers and sellers at the higher end of the market particularly expect to bear the brunt of tax increases so that is where we expect the change to be most noticeable.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts:
“Markets are pricing in a further base rate cut in November, taking base rate to 4.75%.
“However, as we have learnt too well this year, what the markets forecast and what happens are often two very different things.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops:
“Today’s figures suggest that the market is positioning itself for a busier end to the year compared to even 12 months ago.
“While transaction data can take longer to show a shift in trends, even today’s annual uptick suggests greater confidence from buyers and sellers in direct response to a clearer political outlook and improving economic situation.
“This greater sense of clarity is being seen across the Jackson-Stops network too. In July, new applicants, listings and completions were all higher than June 2024.
“Completions particularly have seen a notable uptick month-on-month and are also up considerably on a year ago.
“Though, sellers continue to have the upper hand and prices are being insulated as a result of the level of demand that is outstripping current stock levels.
“Despite this, buyers are remaining resolute in their searches, we have seen an 18% increase in applicants compared to a year ago and an 11% rise month-on-month.
“The market continues to be underpinned by the difficult polarity of both affordability and availability issues – key factors that Labour has already outlined its intention to address by building 1.5 million homes during this parliament.
“Yet, until these homes move from concept into reality it’s unlikely that the market dynamic can change drastically.
“For now, the market will continue to be driven by lifestyle changes and shifting buyer priorities, although we have a budget ahead which may change sentiment if there are any unexpected changes in taxation.”
