The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in August 2024 was 90,210, 5% higher than August 2023 and marginally lower (less than 1%) than July 2024, according to the latest data from HMRC.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted number of residential transactions in August stood at 104,330, 10% higher than August 2023 and 8% higher than July.
In addition, the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions was 9,760, 3% lower than the year prior and 1% lower than July.
Lastly, the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions in August was approximately 9,370, 4% lower than August 2023 and 8% lower than the month before.
Reaction:
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money:
“Today’s HMRC transactions data reveals an encouraging uptick in transactions annually.
“Homeowners and prospective buyers are capitalising on more favourable lending conditions, highlighting the crucial role that timing and affordability play in market dynamics.
“Last month’s interest rate reduction – the first such cut since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic – has catalysed a step-change amongst homebuyers.
“This positive momentum will likely continue over the coming months.
“This uptick not only indicates renewed confidence in the housing market but also presents opportunities for homeowners to access competitive financing options.
“We’re seeing this trend reflected in a growing number of homeowners leveraging their property’s equity for renovations, debt consolidation, or other financial needs.
“Looking ahead, the recent Labour Party Conference has brought the critical issue of housing supply into sharp focus.
“Their proposed reforms to the planning system, if implemented, could boost housing stock and stimulate further robust market activity.”
Matt Harrison, sales director at Finova Payment Services (fPMS):
“The recent interest rate cut continues to support buyer affordability, helping maintain confidence and demand.
“Compared to August 2023, the growth in transaction volume is particularly encouraging, demonstrating strong underlying demand across the market.
“While non-residential sectors have seen slight declines, the sustained interest in residential properties points to the potential for continued market stability as we approach the final quarter of the year.”
Aman Bajwa, director and co-founder of Fairbridge Capital:
“While today’s figures show that the anticipated burst of activity in the property market is yet to get underway, opportunities remain for savvy investors.
“The Government has already indicated that it will place an emphasis on improving supply and standards in the property market, and the budget, as well as the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024, are both opportunities for them to deliver on this goal.
“Additionally, slightly slower house price growth, combined with accelerating rent growth is increasing the profitability of some deals.
“While there is still some uncertainty, specialist products such as bridging loans can help investors secure funding at the exact moment they need it, to help them take advantage of any opportunities available.”
Phil Lawford, national account manager at Saffron for Intermediaries:
“It is just over a month since the Bank of England cut the base rate for the first time in four years, and while this hasn’t yet translated into increased transactions, there is a lot to be happy about in the mortgage market.
“Confidence has steadily been increasing as rates drop to their lowest levels in six months, inflation remains steady, and the supply of properties is growing.
“Two years on from the disastrous ‘mini-Budget’, the market has come a long way and brokers and lenders can look forward to a busier Q4 going into 2025.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients:
“With one interest rate cut behind us and further to come, buyers are more confident about taking the plunge.
“It helps that lenders are engaged in a mortgage rate war, with Coventry Building Society today launching the market-leading 5-year fix, pegged at 3.69%.
“Some lenders are also easing criteria to assist first-time buyers onto the ladder, with Nationwide prepared to lend up to six times income.
“With a number of sub-4% 5- and now 2-year fixes, there is increased choice to tempt buyers.
“This should further boost transaction numbers this autumn, assuming the Budget doesn’t throw this off course.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops:
“A notable 5% rise in transactions this month, compared to a year ago, demonstrates the demand we’re witnessing across the housing market.
“This growth is partly driven by greater choice in mortgage products and rising buyer confidence, further supported by last month’s interest rate cut by the Bank of England – the first since 2020.
“As transaction data often lags behind real-time sentiment, we expect this positive momentum to carry through for the rest of the year.
“Our own data reflects this trend, with increased buyer interest translating into more applicant registrations across our branches, while we have also seen a steady rise in listings throughout the last quarter as vendors seek to capitalize on current market conditions.
“Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming Budget.
“While potential changes to capital gains and inheritance tax may temporarily affect demand, we don’t expect it to dampen activity in the final quarter of the year.”
Kevin Roberts, managing director, Legal & General Mortgage Services:
“Today’s figures show that the property market is still wrestling a lot of pent-up demand.
“However, as we enter a traditionally busy period for the mortgage market, lower rates, positive sentiment and lower inflation may well push many buyers to pull the trigger on home purchases.
“With a 14% increase in new properties for sale compared to last year, there are opportunities for buyers and movers, and we may see a wave of activity in Q4 and early 2025.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:
“Although inevitably reflecting what was happening at least a few months ago, transactions are still a better indicator of market prosperity than more volatile prices.
“Activity remains surprisingly strong during a period when we might have expected worries about the economy, the election and mortgage rates to have blown it more off course.
“Since then, inflation has settled and borrowing costs dropped a little and a measure of political stability has returned.
“However, more property choice and Budget concerns have meant significant change over the coming quarter at least is unlikely.”
Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance:
“With some further headwind coming in after the election, we are seeing the positivity and push due to lower interest rates and in turn, more affordable mortgage rates.
“While some buyers and sellers are waiting for a potential further decrease in rates, which will hopefully come before Christmas, others are taking the plunge having decided that another rate drop won’t significantly benefit their ability to purchase.
“As we await the Budget, which has been suggested will be ‘ painful’, further activity in the market might stall as people await the fallout.”
Holly Tomlinson, financial planner at Quilter:
“As the first budget from the Labour government approaches housing policy will no doubt remain a political priority but there is unlikely to be any significant measures to further buoy the property market, particularly with the Government focused on addressing broader fiscal challenges, including the £22bn fiscal black hole.
“While the residential market continues to hold its ground, aided by strong buyer demand and more stable mortgage offerings, the non-residential sector faces a more challenging path forward.
“The housing market’s performance into the final quarter of 2024 will likely hinge on the trajectory of interest rates and broader economic conditions, but with Labour’s first Budget expected to focus on broader fiscal policy rather than housing stimulus, it’s unlikely to provide significant additional support to this already cautious market.”
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals:
“Another ‘marginal’ fall in property sales should not spell disaster for the property industry, especially considering the healthy volume of sales we have seen so far this year.
“In many areas of the country, there is not enough good-quality, yet affordably-priced housing to meet the unprecedented levels of demand that estate agents are seeing.
“First-time buyers are choosing to sit tight, with hopes that market conditions will go in their favour. For others, it is simply a case of affordability concerns.
“Saving for a deposit is challenging at the best of times, but with living costs still high, and energy prices set to increase this winter, it makes the process even more difficult.
“The Bank of England has made some cautious progress in lowering interest rates as a result of falling inflation levels in the past year.
“It is anticipated that it will continue to be much of the same as the year comes to a close, dashing hopes of a steep decline in mortgage rates and acting as a deterrent to first-time buyers.
“It is now just over a month until the 30th October Budget and we are hopeful that there will be some practical changes that will help reassure sellers and get more people on the property ladder.
“Potential increases to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) may have panicked some landlords to sell up while rates are lower, however our members have not noticed a significant influx of available properties on the market.”
Nicky Stevenson, managing director at national estate agent group Fine & Country:
“Transaction figures experienced a slight monthly decline in August, even as the Bank of England’s interest rate cut aimed to bolster consumer confidence.
“Although this significant policy change fell short of driving a surge in home purchases — transactions dipped by less than 1% from July levels — they remained 5% higher year-on-year.
“As the economy continues to stabilise, we anticipate that this positive momentum will be evident in transaction data as we move into 2025.
“Lower interest rates translate to reduced monthly mortgage payments, which should attract buyers back into the market.
“This change offers greater flexibility in their budgets and the opportunity to consider higher-priced homes.
“This week, Nationwide cut select fixed-rate mortgage deals by up to 0.31%. New customers can now access a 5-year fixed-rate deal at 3.74%, but it’s limited to home purchases with a 40% deposit and loans over £300,000.
“NatWest offers a similar 5-year fixed-rate at 3.77%, with no minimum loan amount.
“Despite a strong demand for housing, sellers may need to be flexible on asking prices. Zoopla reported a seven-year high in property supply this August, which should help keep prices in check.
“Looking ahead, with inflation remaining around the government’s 2% target and another base rate cut anticipated by year’s end, analysts predict stronger buyer interest, potentially leading to a boost in market activity this autumn.
“However, challenges remain. Economic uncertainties, including the upcoming October budget and persistent affordability issues, could dampen momentum.
“Even with declining interest rates, mortgage costs remain relatively high, putting the market’s resilience to the test.”
Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen:
“The increase in residential property transactions offers a note of cautious optimism as we move out of the traditionally quieter summer months which had a more pronounced effect on the commercial sector.
“Despite a recent interest rate freeze, July’s interest rate reduction has begun to have a tangible impact, with August’s figures suggesting that homebuyers are keen to capitalise on more favourable borrowing conditions, a trend which commercial investors will likely also follow soon, especially if we see further rate cuts as the year progresses.
“This underscores the market’s responsiveness to monetary policy and highlights the crucial role of accessible finance in stimulating property market activity.
“Looking ahead, the Labour Party conference has brought property market reform into sharp focus.
“Angela Rayner’s outline of plans to reform the planning system and increase housing stock could have significant implications for the sector.
“While the full impact of such reforms would take time to materialise, the prospect of change is an exciting opportunity to introduce more activity into the market.
“As we transition into autumn, typically a more active period for property transactions, it will be crucial to monitor how these various factors continue to shape market activity.”
