The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in September 2024 stood at 91,820, 9% higher than September 2023 and less than 1% higher than August, HMRC’s latest monthly property transactions data revealed.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in September was 94,800, 2% higher than the same month last year and 9% lower than August.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions in September stood at 10,250, 5% higher than September 2023 and 5% higher than last month.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions in September 2024 was 10,260, less than 1% higher than September 2023 and 9% higher than August.
Reaction:
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark:
“As we move towards the end of the year, it remains upbeat to witness a real transformation within the housing sector with an overall trend of growth.
“There are also potential positives hopefully still to come, with strong hints we may see a further dip regarding the base rates next week.
“However, there are some aspects contained within yesterday’s budget which are extremely disappointing, with first-time buyers feeling the brunt, as the current Stamp Duty threshold is lowered back to £300,000 from next April being an example.
“Typically, this would mean an additional tax liability of £6,250 for those hoping to get on the housing ladder on a home priced at £425,000.”
Josh Skelding, commercial director at Fignum:
“The latest data from HMRC offers another positive sign of market recovery, in line with the two-year high in mortgage approvals.
“The July rate cut is already having a visible impact on transactions, with September’s figures suggesting that homebuyers are keen to take advantage of these improved borrowing conditions, and commercial investors are likely to follow in their footsteps if rates continue to ease.
“This year has brought more confidence and flexibility for consumers navigating the buying and selling process, bolstered by stable inflation and improved mortgage deals.
“Looking ahead, the outlook is still uncertain, with much hinging on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate decisions, and they’ll be cautious not to risk reversing recent progress by cutting rates too aggressively.
“While challenges remain, especially given the policy implications from yesterday’s Budget on the buy-to-let sector, there are still deals available with much lower rates than this time last year, setting up a promising close to 2024.
“As such, lenders must remain agile and lean on technology to compete on rates before year-end, whether that’s leveraging cloud-based solutions or configurable tech to empower buyers to find the best option for their financial needs.”
Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen:
“We are encouraged to see the uptick in commercial and residential transaction figures continue this month, sustaining the confidence we have in both markets’ recoveries from a tumultuous period.
“Despite significant tax rises, yesterday’s budget has at least ended weeks of speculation, providing further stability, with policy affecting the next few years in Government, being set and disclosed.
“Rachel Reeves’ plans to get Britain building again will be a key driver for sections of the housing market, with a promise of a significant £5bn investment setting the tone for the months ahead, while the promise of further business rates relief will be welcomed by affected commercial property occupiers.
“Combined with steady interest rate reductions, we are starting to see a more positive outlook for the industry.
“With surer footing and an injection of cash on the way, we want to make sure that the industry is primed and ready for the challenge that lies ahead.
“Hitting the Government’s steep housing targets will be no mean feat.
“All different facets of the industry will need to work together to remove roadblocks and ensure that hold ups sales and purchases of land or buildings are not hampered by slow processes and inefficient systems.
“A crucial part of this journey will be ensuring the use of technology is front and centre. Without it, we won’t find the industry progress nearly as quickly as we’d like.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops:
“The short delay in transaction data shows us the immediate boost that the outcome of the election provided the housing market, with buyers pressing on with their searches amid falling interest rates and positive wage growth.
“Yet, transaction levels are becoming more stagnant month on month due to the lack of available stock on the market at this time which would enable more purchases.
“Despite yesterday’s theatrics in the Budget, the property market remains in largely the same position as before.
“Making £5bn available for housebuilding is very significant, but until spades hit the soil there is no material change for the market.
“The Budget missed a clear opportunity to introduce stamp duty reform, something that could have also helped to stimulate greater activity within the market.
“This is a reform that many market commentators were already expecting, and one that the UK public is on board with.
“Jackson-Stops’ own research revealed that one in four people across the UK were supportive of a change to Stamp Duty.
“Though the decision to keep housing policy changes light yesterday shouldn’t spook buyer confidence, we hope this will only be strengthened further by falling inflation and better borrowing conditions.”
Gareth Lewis, managing director of specialist lender MT Finance:
“It is good to see a small increase in transactions in September.
“The small increase on the previous month may be partly down to the fact that August was relatively buoyant and busier than usual as people got their holidays out of the way early.
“The housing market is moving in the right direction but we will wait to se what happens in response to the Budget and whether some purchases fall by the wayside as a result of the surprise increase in stamp duty on buy-to-let and second homes.
“If swaps don’t soften in coming days, mortgage rates will start to edge up as the market reprices.
“While we appreciate there is a financial hole to plug, the government does need property transactions as they are good driver of growth for the economy.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts:
“With the Budget not as dramatic as feared from a property perspective, the ‘wait and see’ approach we have seen from some buyers, who have been more cautious than usual given the economic backdrop, will hopefully now ease.
“That uncertainty has resulted in an increase in properties coming back on the market after fall-throughs.
“These fall-throughs are often due to buyer nervousness, which in many cases is unrelated to the property itself and rather a reflection of economic uncertainty and tightening financial conditions.
“For now, demand remains and most properties are successfully re-agreed and sold after returning to the market.
“Demand for prime London locations is historically resilient; buyers may pause to reassess financial implications, but high-demand areas are likely to retain interest.”
Clare Beardmore, director of distribution and mortgage club at Legal & General Mortgage Services:
“Sales activity is at its highest level since 2020, creating an exciting window of opportunity for borrowers ready to dive in and make their move.
“With another cut to the central rate seemingly around the corner, momentum should hold – and could even strengthen – as we close out the year.
“Securing the best deal might seem overwhelming, but enlisting the help of a professional mortgage adviser can make all the difference.
“They know the ins and outs of the market, helping you find a deal that’s right for your needs.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Client:
“Lower mortgage rates have boosted activity in the market.
“With one interest rate cut behind us and hopefully another coming next week, bringing base rate down to 4.75%, buyers will be more confident about committing to a property purchase.
“However, swap market volatility continues, with 5-year swaps edging up over 4% in reaction to the Budget.
“Some lenders are repricing upwards while others hold their ground for now at least, in a bid to attract new business.
“Borrowers should plan ahead and seek advice from a whole-of-market broker to find the best mortgage for their circumstances.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:
“Completed sales are a better gauge of market strength than more changeable house prices, not least because they include cash as well as mortgaged transactions.
“Although reflecting activity from a few months ago, the figures do show buyers and sellers were not fazed by the economic and political uncertainty prevailing at that time, which bodes well.
“We do not believe the Budget will have a significant impact although properties which investors decide not to purchase due to higher stamp duty could be snapped up by first-time buyers as they also look to take advantage before they have to pay more stamp duty after the spring.”
Nicky Stevenson, managing director at national estate agent group Fine & Country:
“The property market gained momentum in September, with transaction numbers rising in line with predictions for an autumn boost.
“After a slight dip in August, buyer activity rebounded, and transactions were 9% higher than this time last year.
“Yesterday’s budget announcement from the Labour government, outlining a £40bn tax increase plan, could influence the market as we head toward the end of 2024.
“While some are re-evaluating their financial outlook, this year’s economic indicators have shown resilience, fueling cautious optimism for the property market.
“First-time buyers remain largely unaffected by these new tax measures, which primarily impact wealthier, older homeowners.
“This has eased pressure on younger buyers, who are already navigating high home prices and interest rates.
“That said, some feel further support for first-time buyers would have been welcomed.
“Earlier in the year, a reduction in the base interest rate provided a break for monthly mortgage costs, encouraging more buyers to re-enter the market.
“Experts expect another rate cut from the Bank of England before year-end, potentially giving buyers more flexibility with their budgets.
“With continued buyer interest, experts are hopeful that the property market is set up for a strong end to the year.”
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals:
“Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Budget is our latest insight into the current state of property sales and it’s a picture of stability, with just a marginal increase in transactions.
“As the industry digests what the effects of the Budget might entail, one thing that should reassure any fears that the market will stall will be that lower and middle-income buyers are not in the Government’s sights when it comes to tax rises.
“We would like to have seen some more incentives to buy announced in the Budget, but commitments to building affordable and social housing will be welcomed by people who are struggling to afford the costly rental market.
“Regulatory changes to the Right to Buy scheme also means that people looking to buy their council house will be paying money directly back to the council rather than the Government – a move that will hopefully incentivise more councils to build.”
