The seasonally adjusted estimate for residential transactions in January 2025 was 95,110, HMRC’s latest property transactions data has revealed.
This was a 14% increase from January 2024 and slightly less than the 96,050 recorded in December 2024.
The non-seasonally adjusted estimate for the same period was 81,360, reflecting a 21% rise from January 2024 but a 17% decrease compared to December 2024.
For non-residential transactions, the seasonally adjusted estimate in January 2025 was 9,350, 5% lower than January 2024 and 4% below December 2024.
The non-seasonally adjusted figure was 8,400, marking a 3% drop from January 2024 and a 19% fall from December 2024.
Reaction:
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money:
“The latest increase in residential property transactions shows that appetite among some buyers continues to grow, as expectations of a rate cut prompt a flurry of new purchases.
“Yet with house prices nearing record highs, and interest rates remaining at elevated levels, many remain unable to purchase a new home, opting to renovate their existing property instead.
“For those who choose to improve rather than move, second-charge mortgages are an appealing way to fund home refurbishments, allowing households to reduce monthly outgoings by consolidating debt.
“Stubbornly high inflation and a challenging rates environment mean that people on low fixed-rate mortgages are increasingly using second charge loans to keep their current deals and avoid early repayment charges.
“Whether you are looking to renovate the house you live in, or pay for a major life event, second charge mortgages offer a flexible, affordable, and attractive option to consider.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software:
“The property market continues to show signs of volatility, with transactions stabilising after a rollercoaster few months.
“While the slight dip in seasonally adjusted residential transactions suggests a degree of resilience, the sharp drop in non-seasonally adjusted figures highlights the ongoing uncertainty.
“However, it’s important to note residential transactions are still up considerably on this time last year.
“Despite interest rate cuts aimed at stimulating the market, rising inflation is likely tempering buyer confidence and affordability.
“With economic pressures pulling in different directions, the next few months will be crucial in determining whether stability holds or further fluctuations lie ahead.
“The changes to stamp duty at the start of April are also likely to create short-term volatility, as buyers bring forward their purchases to beat that deadline.
“We may see a surge in transactions in March, followed by a slowdown in subsequent months, mirroring patterns seen after previous tax adjustments.”
Melanie Spencer, sales and growth lead at Target Group:
“While annual figures show a much improved picture to 12 months ago, another fall in monthly transactions lines up with the slow and steady start to the year some firms have seen.
“With transaction times as they are, the rush to beat the stamp duty deadline has already cooled – brokers have done the right thing by properly preparing their customers.
“Add in fears around inflation and higher interest rates, and we should expect a slight drop in confidence.
“Of course, much of the market is waiting with bated breath for the spring, where we’ll start to see the real impact of measures announced in the Budget.
“There’s no doubt this will be felt by households, as will an increase in both water and energy bills which will continue to push inflation further away from target.
“As a result, we now move into a more unpredictable interest rate picture – not just for March, which seems very unlikely to see a cut, but for the remainder of the year.
“The need to support the economy will hopefully prevent a too cautious approach from the central bank, meaning further cuts should come.
“This is key to keeping the market moving and productive – as seen in the annual figures. It’s crucial to alleviating the key affordability challenges felt by so many borrowers.
“As we have seen already, lenders will continue to do all they can to innovate – whether that’s on product or criteria – and will explore the right partners and integrations to unlock new product offerings and enhance their service offering.”
