Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, believes growing uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget has left many developers hesitant to progress new housing projects, with confidence falling sharply as concerns over potential tax changes, rising costs and planning challenges weigh on the sector.
His comments follow a new survey commissioned by the specialist lender, which shows that 64% of developers are not confident about starting new residential schemes over the next 12 months, while a further 28% said they were only cautiously confident.
Just 8% reported that their pipeline was progressing as normal.
The survey highlights significant anxiety over potential new taxes. Over a quarter of respondents said they were very concerned about the prospect of an annual or land-value tax on high-value property or development land, while 35% said they shared concerns depending on thresholds and rates.
In addition, 43% said that potential increases to capital gains tax or new levies on corporate property disposals would cause them to delay sales and slow development turnover, while nearly a quarter indicated they would try to accelerate disposals ahead of any changes.
Planning remains the central barrier to unlocking delivery, with more than half of developers saying the planning system is the key issue preventing the Government from meeting its target of 1.5 million new homes.
While developers also cited the value of financial incentives, including reduced SDLT or land transaction costs and tax relief on land acquisition or build costs, 48% said structural challenges around funding and taxation mean wider reform is needed.
Just over half said streamlined planning or reduced levies would help viability, with 16% saying it would significantly enable more projects and 36% saying it would slightly support delivery.
Looking ahead to next year, 48% of developers expect the Autumn Budget to restrict development activity in 2026, while only 15% believe it will support the sector and 36% anticipate little overall effect.
The message to Government is clear: 33% said the top priority should be planning reform and infrastructure investment, with 19% urging policymakers to avoid introducing new property taxes that could deter investment and land acquisition.
Samuels said: “Confidence among developers has clearly weakened ahead of the Autumn Budget, and it’s easy to see why.
“Speculation around new taxes, higher capital gains charges, or potential land levies is creating a holding pattern across much of the sector. Developers thrive on certainty, but right now that’s in short supply.
While planning reform remains the key to unlocking housing delivery, access to flexible and efficient finance is equally important in maintaining momentum during periods of uncertainty.
“Specialist lenders play a vital role in bridging gaps, refinancing projects, and ensuring viable schemes don’t grind to a halt while developers wait for policy clarity.
If the Government truly wants to hit its housing targets, it must focus on measures that support delivery – whether that’s cutting bureaucracy, reducing transaction costs, or widening access to development funding.
“A well-targeted Stamp Duty reform could provide a near-term boost to buyer demand, helping to restore confidence throughout the housing pipeline.”
