New research from Morta indicates that Britain’s affordability gap is widening, with the lower middle class increasingly priced out of homeownership across the UK.
The study highlights how rising mortgage rates, limited housing supply and a disconnect between wages and living costs are pushing even stable-income households further away from purchasing a home.
Morta defines the middle class as households earning between two-thirds and twice the local median income, based on Office for National Statistics data.
In cities such as London, Oxford and Cambridge, average property prices now exceed what many middle-income families can afford, despite relatively strong local earnings.
Smaller towns are also showing similar pressures, with many homes outside the financial reach of residents. The analysis shows that demand remains high but financial stability is weakening for prospective buyers.
The firm modelled affordability using a 36% gross debt-to-income limit, a 25-year mortgage term, a 4.52% fixed rate and a 20% deposit.
The results show sharp contrasts between lower and upper middle-income households, with upper earners able to afford significantly more in every city examined.
In Belfast, Birmingham, Brighton and Cambridge, the gap between lower and upper thresholds spans hundreds of thousands of pounds, underscoring the divide in purchasing power.
London, Cambridge and Reading have the highest upper-income affordability levels, exceeding £600,000.
The study concludes that Britain’s lower middle class is priced out of homeownership in 42 of the 47 major cities analysed.
London remains the least affordable market, with the average property price exceeding lower-income affordability by £341,917.
Oxford follows with a gap of £308,871. In 39 cities, the lower middle class is limited to homes under £200,000, yet such stock remains scarce.
The research notes that less than one-third of areas in England and Wales had prices low enough for these buyers as far back as 2021, and the gap has continued to widen since.
Even high-earning middle-income households face pressures, unable to afford homes in 18 areas, including 12 London boroughs.
In Kensington and Chelsea, the average home costs £1.26m against an affordability limit of £597,637 for upper earners, leaving a shortfall of £665,469.
Large deficits are also seen in Richmond upon Thames and Westminster, with more modest but still significant gaps in outer boroughs such as Barnet, Harrow and Ealing.
Morta’s analysis indicates the middle-class housing market is shrinking, with both lower and upper earners experiencing affordability constraints.
The firm said the findings reflect an ongoing imbalance between wage growth and property prices, suggesting many households may no longer be able to access homeownership in the cities and communities where they work.
