Bridging completions forecast to reach £8bn by year end – Octane Capital
The forecast of £8bn for 2026 would represent a fall from 2025 but would remain around 39% above the level recorded in 2023.
Bridging completions are forecast to reach £8bn at the end of 2026 after a slower start to the year, according to Octane Capital.
The specialist lender analysed completion data from the previous 24 months using an ETS exponential smoothing forecasting model.
Completions totalled £1.8bn in the first quarter of 2026, down 26.5% from the final quarter of 2025 and 35.7% from the same period last year.
Annual completions rose from £5.76bn in 2023 to £7.34bn in 2024.
They then reached an estimated £10.03bn in 2025.
The forecast of £8bn for 2026 would represent a fall from 2025 but would remain around 39% above the level recorded in 2023.
Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, said: “The wider bridging market may have started the year at a more subdued level following the exceptional growth seen in recent years, but that certainly wasn’t reflective of our own experience at Octane, where we enjoyed a very strong first half, further strengthened by our acquisition by Aldermore.
“More broadly, it’s important not to mistake a short-term market slowdown for a fundamental reduction in the importance of bridging finance.
“Our forecast suggests that completions could still reach around £8bn by the end of the year.”
Samuels added: “That would understandably fall short of the record-breaking levels seen in 2025, but it would still leave the market almost 40% larger than it was in 2023, demonstrating just how significantly bridging’s role within the wider lending landscape has grown.
“The fundamental drivers behind this growth haven’t disappeared.
“Borrowers still require speed and certainty, investors need the flexibility to act when opportunities arise and developers increasingly require funding solutions that can accommodate more complex project and exit timelines.”
He said: “So whilst 2026 may prove to be a year of recalibration for the wider market rather than one of record-breaking growth, bridging finance remains firmly established as a vital part of the property finance landscape.”
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