As I write this, our indefatigable Prime Minister is still Prime Minister, but his hands have been prized from the door frame of 10 Downing Street that he has insisted on keeping hold for a while.
But even when he relinquishes occupation entirely and a new Tory party leader and PM is ordained, I suspect Boris will remain a prominent figure within UK politics for a while yet.
If I were the Conservative membership, I’d make him party chairman, a role much more fitting to his character and brilliant campaigning ability. He’s an electioneer, not a leader, in my opinion.
So what now? Well, we are finally down to two, Sunak and Truss, and it’s now up to the 160,000 or so strong Conservative party membership to appoint a boss come September.
My money is on whoever is the strongest fiscal conservative.
At the beginning of the contest, Nadim Zahawi caught the eye with a raft of tax-cutting pledges. The current Chancellor (I think, although it’s hard to keep up) declared that if he were PM he would cut taxes, including corporation tax, VAT and stamp duty – the latter being my pet hate.
He said he’d suspend fuel duty too temporarily and reverse the consumer spending decline and the current inflation trend all at the same time.
But this was all to no avail, and he’s out, the final battle now being between a tax hiker in Sunak and the supposed tax cuts of Truss.
Rishi? I like him and think he’ll make a great Prime Minister. I certainly don’t buy him being obsolete because his wife is a billionaire or because she pays tax in her native India; he may still be tainted by the Number 10 briefing campaign against him earlier this year and his refusal to cut taxes. Chancellor again? Maybe that works.
Whatever happens in the embittered battle that is about to ensue, a fresh pair of hands with a clean slate is just what we need and, accordingly, confidence and positive sentiment have a decent chance of being restored now.
Perhaps we’ll also see integrity and honesty returned to the corridors of Whitehall – one can hope.
The new team must also send a strong message to the Bank of England, independent as it may be. And that is one of being less obsessed with inflation figures.
Yes, it hurts us and means that wages are lower in real terms, but placing inflation as THE key metric by which we run economic policy seems nuts to me.
Inflation is temporary and right now caused by a combination of the uptick in recovery spending post-pandemic and scarcity of resources as a consequence of the war in Ukraine. Neither of these will last forever and nor will inflation.
The wrong thing for Downing Street 2.0 to do here is to acquiesce to Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s Governor.
Instead, the new incumbent must change their terms of reference and let inflation run a little. Surely a slightly higher cost of living for a short while is better than an economic ice age caused by a recession brought about by interest rates being hiked and hiked unnecessarily?
As we all swelter in the heat, the latest temperature check of the UK property market via the Halifax House Price Index shows that values have risen by the highest annualised rate since 2004 at 13%. So far, Brexit, the pandemic and Bo Jo’s crash to earth have left the housing market completely unfazed.
So, in amongst the doom-laden commentary that you will see elsewhere, are there reasons to be cheerful? Yes, I rather think there are.
Mark Posniak is managing director of Octane Capital, the third generation property funder
