The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transactions in November 2024 was 92,640, 13% higher than November 2023 but 8% lower in October 2024, HMRC data has revealed.
As part of its latest Monthly Property Transactions data, HMRC also reported that the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transactions in November 2024 was 104,440, 19% higher than November 2023 and 6% lower than October.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of non-residential transactions in November was 9,430, 5% lower than November 2023 and 33% lower than October.
In addition, the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for non-residential transactions in November was 9,750, also down 5% from November 2023 and 35% lower than October.
Reaction:
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark:
“With more competitive interest rates than this time last year, growing numbers of homes coming to the market, and a rush from many buyers and sellers to beat the rises to Stamp Duty commencing from April 2025 in England and Northern Ireland, the overall mix of market conditions has inspired many and, in numerous cases, provided the extra confidence and affordability people were waiting for to make their first or next house move.
“We anticipate a busier than normal first quarter of 2025.
“However, activity will likely settle back down to more expected levels, allowing people to comprehensively review the market and negotiate their next move without the pressure of a Stamp Duty deadline.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts:
“These figures offer valuable insight into overall activity and are a key indicator as to how the market is likely to shape up in early 2025.
“A dip in transaction volumes shows that higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures are inevitably impacting buyer activity.
“That said, this month we have been seeing a good number of market appraisals, which is often a precursor to a strong Spring market.
“In areas where stock is limited, markets have remained steady, particularly the family home market with work-from-home potential.
“Homes that are well priced and well presented are still selling relatively quickly; while buyers may pause to assess financial implications, high-demand areas are likely to retain interest.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients:
“Swap rates have been mostly trending upwards since mid-December as the outlook suggests fewer rate cuts this year than previously thought.
“Despite this, a number of lenders including Halifax, HSBC and Leeds Building Society have made significant reductions to their fixed rates as they attempt to build a pipeline of business for the new year.
“However, other lenders have moved in the opposite direction and have raised some rates, including Skipton, Virgin and Clydesdale, while TSB has increased the pricing of more products than it has reduced, and Accord has increased as many rates as it has cut.
“Lenders who are increasing their pricing may be more sensitive to swap rate rises than bigger lenders who have more funds in savings to call upon and are better able to absorb any increases in swaps.”
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket:
“A dip in transaction numbers in November compared with the previous month is always concerning as transactions are a better indicator of market health than house price fluctuations.
“However, the numbers need to be put into context as buyers and sellers brought forward transactions to October amid concerns as to what the Budget might hold, boosting activity that month.
“Two rate reductions in the second half of last year bolstered buyer and seller confidence, and with further cuts expected this year, there is cautious optimism which bodes well for the spring market.
“While some lenders have reduced their fixed-rate mortgages this month, helping ease affordability, increased stock means buyers have more choice so are in a stronger negotiating position and remain price sensitive.
“With Stamp Duty changes providing an extra motivation for first-time buyers in particular to transact over the next few months, a further rate cut from the Bank of England would be timely and give further impetus to the spring market.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops:
“November’s activity was particularly strong on an annual basis, but did struggle to keep up the pace after such a busy October.
“The Chancellor’s Autumn statement propelled the market into heightened activity. Although housing wasn’t the central focus, confirmation that the temporary Stamp Duty change will end in April has driven serious buyers to act.
“This looming cost adds another layer for consideration, especially with mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high.
“We expect this elevated level of activity to continue through the early months of 2025, as buyers push to complete their transactions ahead of the Stamp Duty deadline.
“Across the Jackson-Stops network, we anticipate house prices to stay firm in 2025 whilst some local markets may see price increases of up to 4%.
“Market activity will be driven by buyers’ pursuit of stability amid economic uncertainty.
“First-time buyers will be eager to secure their place as rental costs rise, upsizers will seek more space for growing families, and downsizers will aim to simplify their lives and capitalise on current market conditions.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance:
“A quite significant increase in transaction numbers compared with this time last year shows how reduced interest rates have encouraged buyers and sellers to be active.
“Although we are still some way off the highs of previous years, the growing confidence in the market is promising.
“The full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around the spring, once the stamp duty holiday comes to an end.
“Let’s hope a further cut in interest rates comes before then, helping the market stay productive and confident.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:
“As HMRC records not just mortgaged but cash transactions too, these figures provide a much better indicator of market health than more volatile house prices.
“However, the length of time required to conclude a sale shows activity responded quite significantly to the Chancellor’s October Budget.
“Looking forward, the economic and political headwinds which have become more apparent since then mean we expect to see a softening in transaction numbers over coming months, particularly as first-time buyers find it increasingly difficult to take advantage of fast-disappearing stamp duty concessions.”
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money:
“The market continued to be a hive of activity in November on an annual basis, despite some wariness setting in following a particularly strong October.
“This still stood the market in good stead for a stable finish to 2024 that many hoped for a year prior.
“Despite macro-economic headwinds contributing to stubborn inflation, pent up demand, and a rush to beat the stamp duty adjustment should point to a busier spring.
“Though greater activity levels rest on the transaction processing keeping up, something that has only become longer in recent years.
“This strong finish to the year mirrors the performance of the second charge market. The latest data from the Finance and Lending Association shows that second charge new business volumes grew by 32% in October.
“Greater numbers of consumers that are asset rich, but cash poor are seeing homeowner loans as a viable option to consolidate existing loans or fund home improvements.
“Second charge mortgages allow homeowners to keep their low fixed-rate deals on their primary mortgage, avoid early repayment charges, and manage other financial needs without refinancing.
“A successful market requires consistent movement and activity at all levels to ensure transactions occur and allow more people to join or make their next move.
“In 2025, we hope for lower interest rates to ease buyer affordability and unlock pent-up demand.”
