Property transactions saw a monthly increase in December, the latest data from HMRC has revealed.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in December 2024 was 96,330, marking a 19% annual increase as well as a 3% monthly increase.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in December was 98,120, 15% higher than December 2023 and 7% lower than November.
In addition, the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions in December 2024 was 9,850, 3% lower than a year prior and 4% higher than November.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential transactions in December was 10,450, 3% lower than the year before and 7% higher than the previous month.
Reaction:
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops:
“The rise in transactions in December can largely be attributed to the pending Stamp Duty deadline in March.
“No doubt buyers across London and the South East in particular would have been pushing for deals to get across the line given the traditionally higher tax rates in this part of the country.
“This is evidenced across the Jackson-Stops network with the number of new applicants far outweighing new instructions in December in Bury St. Edmunds, Newmarket, Dorking, Northampton, Reigate and Sevenoaks.
“House prices are also holding steady, and growing in some local markets which has put the market on firm footing despite the UK’s economic outlook painting a mixed picture.
“Positively for borrowing buyers, widespread predictions are anticipating a number of cuts to the base rate this year, with rates possibly falling to 3.5% in 18 months’ time.
“Yet, inflationary pressures and low growth will leave consumers feeling like they have less disposable income in their pocket.
“Fundamentally the market remains in a steady position, underpinned by lifestyle and life stages driving sales, meaning that committed buyers are able to press on.
“Though a sustained period of stability, coupled with greater borrowing affordability should give undecided buyers the confidence they need to renew their searches in 2025.”
Phil Lawford, national account manager at Saffron for Intermediaries:
“An increase in property transactions at this time of year is a welcome sign, particularly after a challenging period for the housing market.
“Concerns around inflation and a higher interest rate environment have placed pressure on buyers, but the market’s resilience remains evident.
“Recent discussions around loosening mortgage lending rules could provide further support, potentially making homeownership more accessible for many.
“These figures predate any resulting changes from the FCA’s recent review of lending regulation, conducted to help the Government drive economic growth.
“While we’re not expecting a return to the historically low rates of the last decade, the prospect of more tailored, accessible lending options could help sustain this positive momentum for buyers.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts:
“These figures offer valuable insight into overall activity and are a key indicator as to how the market is likely to shape up in early 2025.
“Steady transaction volumes shows that higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures are impacting buyers, preventing the market from running away with itself.
“We found that early January was quiet but the month as a whole has been busier than normal with a good number of market appraisals, which bodes well for a strong spring market.
“In areas where stock is limited, markets have remained steady, particularly the family home market with work-from-home potential.
“Homes that are well priced and well presented are still selling relatively quickly; while buyers may pause to assess financial implications, high-demand areas are likely to retain interest.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients:
“Rate reductions are a great way of boosting confidence and activity in the housing market, as we saw with the base rate cuts in second half of last year.
“All eyes will be on the Bank of England next week to see whether we get another, much-anticipated rate cut, giving the market a welcome boost and helping those borrowers who may be struggling with affordability.”
Josh Skelding, commercial director at Fignum:
“The latest data from HMRC offers another positive sign for market recovery, even despite the drop in mortgage approvals towards the end of last year.
“While affordability challenges remain, there is still good reason for optimism.
“The upcoming Stamp Duty changes are expected to inject fresh momentum into the market, potentially encouraging more buyers to take the plunge.
“At the same time, a steady reduction in interest rates throughout the year could help fuel further activity – particularly if lenders begin lowering rates on new fixed mortgage deals in anticipation.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark:
“Stamp Duty changes across England and Northern Ireland, more competitive mortgage deals, easing financial pressures and higher house prices are all contributing to higher demand and growth within the housing market.
“This overall mix of market conditions has inspired many and provided extra confidence many people might have been waiting for to consider their next house move.
“Propertymark member agents reported that new buyers registered per branch have on average increased year on year by 44%.
“Therefore, with demand rising, now is a compelling moment to consider putting your house on the market.
“However, activity will likely settle around April especially, allowing those looking to move home to more comprehensively scan the market and negotiate in a slower-paced and more unpressured marketplace.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance:
“A quite significant increase in transaction numbers compared with this time last year shows how reduced interest rates have encouraged buyers and sellers to be active.
“Although we are still some way off the highs of previous years, the growing confidence in the market is promising.
“The full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around springtime, once the stamp duty holiday comes to an end.
“Let’s hope a further cut in interest rates comes before then, helping the market stay productive and confident.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:
“Completed sales are a much better indicator of market health than more volatile house prices.
“However, these figures reflect activity mostly from around three to four months ago but of mortgaged and cash sales, so demonstrate considerable market resilience at a time of pre- and post-Budget uncertainty.
“In our offices, transactions are progressing but slowly as caution about economic prospects remains.
“Nevertheless, few sales seem to be failing or are subject to considerable renegotiation but patience is essential.”
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket:
“Steady transaction numbers in December are encouraging, particularly given the time of year, as transactions are a better indicator of market health than house price fluctuations.
“Two rate reductions in the second half of last year bolstered buyer and seller confidence, and with further cuts expected this year, there is cautious optimism which bodes well for the spring market.
“While some lenders have reduced their fixed-rate mortgages this month, helping ease affordability, increased stock means buyers have more choice so are in a stronger negotiating position and remain price sensitive.
“With Stamp Duty changes providing an extra motivation for first-time buyers in particular to transact over the next few months, a further rate cut from the Bank of England would be timely and give further impetus to the spring market.”
Matt Harrison, commercial director at finova Broker:
“The latest HMRC property transaction figures paint an encouraging picture for the UK housing market, with a notable 19% year-on-year increase in seasonally adjusted residential transactions for December 2024.
“This upward trend suggests growing confidence among buyers and sellers, a positive signal as we head into 2025.
“While seasonal fluctuations are expected, the month-on-month rise in seasonally adjusted transactions reflects steady demand, which should give brokers, lenders, and advisers confidence in the market’s resilience.
“The non-residential sector has seen a slight year-on-year dip, but the monthly increase suggests ongoing activity.
“With this momentum, the industry should remain focused on ensuring accessible lending and efficient processes to support continued growth.
“As affordability remains a key concern, collaboration across the market will be essential to sustaining this positive trajectory into the new year.”
