The ‘Fourteen years of hurt’ anthem of the Government’s front bench has been abandoned. We’re all looking forward now. But to what exactly? I have a theory.
We are not out of the woods but the prospects for the middle of the decade appear better than they have been for some time.
With only tariffs, wars and Western decline on the horizon to upset the economic commercial outlook, falling interest rates, relaxed lending guidelines and easing cost of living pressures should (by that I mean traditionally) herald brighter times for a couple of years.
Margins may remain under pressure but an uptick in volumes will offset that if we can achieve some growth. I’m not worried about decline. That’s been going on since the Victorian era. Wars invariably follow trade wars but these are not a done deal. Far from it.
I think we may be due an upturn in the economic cycle. It’s a pattern we’ve seen before. My pub economics theory says the good times in my lifetime always happen mid-decade.
It needs a generation in the workforce who have no experience of downside to build a bubble we can all enjoy before it blows up.
Think oil prices in the early 70s, the winter of discontent late 70s and unemployment in the early 80s. Negative equity crisis in the early 90s, the .com bubble of the early 2000s and of course the big one in 2007/8. Even the pandemic had the good manners to follow this pattern. Very sporting of it.
History of course does not repeat itself but it does rhyme. We have different dynamics. Global capital, an ageing population who are living and working longer, infrastructure, wealth inequality and a vastly more connected digital world to name a few.
These may add nuance or possibly even derail my theory but if I am wrong there remains the likelihood that the global super elite will deliver a vision we can all buy into. The crumbs from the table of global tech bro billionaires may soon look like a five-course meal with a wine flight.
So my money is metaphorically on the table. Let’s hope my prior guess is right.
Matt Smith is chief content officer at WHJE and managing director of WPB
