Property market activity strengthened in October, though residential and non-residential transactions remained lower than a year ago on a seasonally adjusted basis, data from HMRC has revealed.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for UK residential transactions in October 2025 stood at 98,450.
This is 2% lower than October 2024 but 2% higher than September 2025, indicating a modest month-on-month uptick as activity continues to stabilise.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions reached 116,230 in October.
This represented a 4% increase compared with October 2024 and a 13% rise from September 2025.
Non-residential activity followed a similar pattern.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for non-residential transactions in October 2025 was 10,250, which is 29% lower than a year earlier but 4% higher than September 2025.
The non-seasonally adjusted figure rose to 11,290, 26% down on October 2024 but 10% higher than the previous month.
Reaction:
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark:
“Typically on the lead up to any Budget announcement, the housing market can witness a degree of hesitation, as people look to assess what might be proposed. However, any such impact beforehand is not an exact science to the magnitude of uncertainty. With lower base rates than only twelve months back, it is positive to see forward momentum in terms of growth in the number of housing transactions taking place both year on year and month on month while referring to the non-seasonally adjusted figures.
“Within the Budget, it was disappointing not to witness any support for first-time buyers and assistance for those who may be considering downsizing in the Budget at a time of extreme demand on current housing stock. There has been what feels like a missed opportunity to promote the concept of people being able to move more easily to a property that fits their precise needs.”
Lee Williams, national sales manager at Saffron for Intermediaries:
“Today’s data shows a steady increase in housing market activity through October, reflecting the underlying resilience we’ve continued to see in recent months. Despite speculation that some buyers might take a ‘wait and see’ approach ahead of the Autumn Budget, confidence has remained strong in sections of the market, supported by easing inflationary pressures and a growing range of competitive mortgage products.
“As we now move beyond the Budget, the focus will shift to how the Chancellor’s measures influence sentiment and activity in the months ahead. In an evolving market, it is important to get mortgage advice to ensure customers receive the guidance that best fits their circumstances and requirements.”
Nick Hale, CEO at Movera:
“It’s reassuring to see that transactions continued to persevere in October as many buyers refused to be sidelined by Budget speculation. We can now expect to see property transactions continue this upward trajectory into 2026, as mainstream buyers emerged from Wednesday’s announcement relatively unscathed.
“While the highest value properties over £2m+ were hit with a mansion tax, the impact of this on supply and demand should be limited to the very upper end of the market – a far better outcome than the rumored annual tax for all homes over £500,000. However, Reeves failed to introduce any new assistance for first time buyers, instead pushing any discussion of new initiatives back into next year. So, its likely hesitation may continue for that segment of the market too.
“But for the vast majority of buyers, there’s no longer cause for delay. Many lenders have cut mortgage rates in recent weeks. Brokers should be advising their clients to take advantage of these deals now. With inflation on its way down finally, another base rate cut could follow in a matter of weeks, leading to even more enticing rates.
“At Movera, we’re here to support brokers and conveyancers as the market picks up, and demonstrate that by investing in digitisation, transactions can progress quicker and easier for all parties involved.”
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money:
“The year-on-year dip in transaction volumes comes as no surprise. We’re comparing today’s market against the outlier of October 2024, where we saw a spike in activity as investors rushed to complete ahead of the Stamp Duty surcharge being introduced. When you look past that anomaly to the month-on-month picture, the data paints a picture of a resilient market, albeit in a ‘wait-and-see’ pattern.
“However, beneath this stability lies a layer of anxiety and volatility ahead of this week’s Budget. The confirmation of a 2% rise in property income tax could be the final straw for many landlords, leaving operating margins increasingly fragile. Simultaneously, the new ‘Mansion Tax’ surcharge risks injecting a chilling effect at the top of the market, causing buyers and sellers to hesitate as they calculate their exposure.”
Hamza Behzad, business development director at Finova:
“This month’s data is a hopeful sign that confidence is starting to return to the housing market and the sectors overall health is robust. In the immediate aftermath of the Budget, it’s difficult to know how the governments new policy changes will impact market activity in the coming months but the Chancellor’s decision to avoid a wider property tax and keep Stamp Duty unchanged should help lift market confidence.
“However, the mansion tax and higher taxes on landlords may worsen rental pressures, making lender support and efficient decision-making even more critical.
“Now the dust is settling, in this period of transition lenders must continue investing in technology that delivers faster, smarter decision-making. The ability to scale and support borrowers will be essential as the market responds to a newly defined policy landscape.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops:
“Today’s transaction results show a mixed-bag; whilst there were reports of transactions pressing ahead to beat the Budget deadline, in the main we saw a market on pause. However, despite this pitstop, the engine remained fundamentally strong fuelled by lifestyle-led moves. Now the Chancellor’s changes have been announced, there may be a few asset-rich cash-poor homeowners that need to redraw the roadmap, but many will choose to race ahead with the benefit of greater clarity.
“It is likely we will see more stock come to the market in the short term, with minor price adjustments for properties just over the £2m cliff edge. We might also see an increase in demand for homes under the tax limit, where buyers adjust budgets with household cashflow in mind. For the South East, this could create upward pressure on prices in the mid-tier or even lower-end property markets, leading to spillover effects for demand in new areas.
“Jackson-Stops’ national figures show a more selective market overall, but it’s far from a one-size-fits-all story. Outside the South East, the £500k–£800k bracket is bucking the trend, with momentum gathering pace – proof that some regions are very much putting their foot back on the gas. We have heard from agents across the country following the Budget that prime buyers are moving at pace with clarity now in mind.
“History shows that when SDLT changes, the housing market doesn’t just react, it leaps. In March, exchanges surged as buyers raced to beat the threshold reduction deadline, only for activity to catch its breath afterwards. Now, the key is keeping transactions moving and prices stable. A fluid market oils far more than estate agency alone: conveyancers, removals, local trades and even retail all rely on housing to keep their wheels turning.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:
“Resilient transaction numbers suggest housing market activity will continue even without government assistance, which was so lacking in the Budget.
“This is vital as any drop off in the number of transactions has a multiplier effect on the wider economy, not just the housing market. Transactions are a better barometer of market health than more volatile house prices, even though they reflect cash and mortgaged buyer activity perhaps three or four months earlier.
“As affordability gradually improves, especially with another base rate cut looking likely, we expect transaction numbers to pick up. With the Budget out of the way, and Mansion Tax likely to raise relatively little additional revenue, especially given the deferred payment date, the impact on housing market activity should be minimal at worst.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance:
“With the Budget lacking any form of positive encouragement for the property market, it is difficult to see how transactions numbers will meaningfully improve.
“In the scheme of things, transaction numbers are low as the cost of moving is still very high. Assistance is needed in order to encourage buyers and sellers to move, and get the market functioning properly.
“An interest rate reduction early in 2026, if not at next month’s meeting, would go some way to encouraging more activity.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software:
“The double-digit monthly increase in property transactions in October shows that buyer demand remained strong despite the uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget. However, it doesn’t paint the full picture, as the October data likely reflects deals agreed earlier in the year. Many buyers and sellers have been cautious over the past few weeks waiting to see how taxes and regulations may change, so we’ll have to wait until next month to see how this may have affected activity.
“What’s certain is the smorgasbord of measures announced by Rachel Reeves on Wednesday will affect property transaction volumes in 2026. The introduction of the ‘mansion tax’ will stifle activity at the top end of the market, potentially creating a trickle-down effect, while the changes to the ISA allowance could reduce the flow of capital to banks and building societies, leading to an increase in mortgage rates. Furthermore, she failed to tackle the structural supply issues in the market. The government looks set to fall well short of its 1.5 million homes target by 2029, which could keep prices stubbornly high and limit options for those looking to move.
“Amidst the chaos of the OBR releasing the budget details early, the regulator lowered its expectations for the number of annual housing transactions from its March forecast, driven by past increases in stamp duty, a slight increase in its forecast for average mortgage rates, and the impact of an ageing population moving less frequently.”
